Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future.
نویسنده
چکیده
Climate science is coming under increasing pressure to deliver projections of future climate change at spatial scales as small as a few kilometres for use in impacts studies. But is our understanding and modelling of the climate system advanced enough to offer such predictions? Here we focus on the Atlantic-European sector, and on the effects of greenhouse gas forcing on the atmospheric and, to a lesser extent, oceanic circulations. We review the dynamical processes which shape European climate and then consider how each of these leads to uncertainty in the future climate. European climate is unique in many regards, and as such it poses a unique challenge for climate prediction. Future European climate must be considered particularly uncertain because (i) the spread between the predictions of current climate models is still considerable and (ii) Europe is particularly strongly affected by several processes which are known to be poorly represented in current models.
منابع مشابه
Decomposition of the large-scale atmospheric state driving downscaling: a perspective on dynamical downscaling for regional climate study
In this study, we provide a perspective on dynamical downscaling that includes a comprehensive view of multiple downscaling methods and a strategy for achieving better assessment of future regional climates. A regional climate simulation is generally driven by a large-scale atmospheric state obtained by a global climate simulation. We conceptualize the large-scale state based on reconstruction ...
متن کاملEuropean Climate Change Policy in a Global Context
Introduction The purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution and state of policy towards climate change in the European Union (EU), to assess prospects for the EU meeting its carbon dioxide CO2 emission target, and to consider future options for EU climate policy and their international implications. Because detailed accounts of the science are available elsewhere, for this paper it is su...
متن کاملA Review of the Effects of Climate Change with an Emphasis on Burden of Waterborne Diseases
Background and Purpose: Climate change has major impact on water cycle, resulting in effects on water resources, the frequency and severity of droughts, floods due to severe rainfall, natural environments, society, and economics and human health. In this paper, surveys on different models of climate change as well as the effects of climate change on the burden of waterborne diseases and also, ...
متن کاملContrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution : 1 uncertain future under a drier climate
متن کامل
The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran
In this paper, we have examined the effect of climate variables on the yield average and variability of major grain crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in Iran from 1983 to 2014. For this purpose, we made use of the Just and Pope Production Function crop yields panel data. The results revealed that the influences of climate variables were different in the crops. The time trend positively influenced ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
دوره 368 1924 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2010